Channels and the mix · Channels

Should we start a content program

Estimate the month a clinic blog beats paid search on cumulative cost per comparable visit, and how far its traffic estimate can fall before it misses.

estimatemediumExercise · 3 min · 27 of 60

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The clinic scheduler's founder has been offered a content program and will fund it only if it beats paid search within 18 months. The decision rests on a traffic estimate that nobody can check before the program starts spending.

The situation

The clinic scheduler from module 1 sells to small clinics at $99 a month. Paid search on clinic-scheduling terms costs an assumed $4 a click. A writer offers 6 posts a month at $400 each, the course's written-post figure, and each needs a two-hour review by a practice manager at $100 an hour, so a post costs $600. Assume each post's traffic ramps linearly to its mature level over 18 months, earning 1/18 of it in the month it is published, and holds there after. The keyword tool estimates 150 visits a month per post at maturity, a figure the writer calls conservative. A blog visit is assumed to book a demo at half the rate of a paid click, so the price to beat is $4 × 0.5 = $2 a visit. Both routes buy the same demos, so the comparison needs no customer value, at 12 months or over a lifetime. The founder will fund the program only if its cumulative cost per visit falls below $2 within 18 months.

The question

Estimate the month the program beats paid search, find how far the 150-visit estimate can fall before the program misses the 18-month deadline, and decide.

A strong answer · Rubric · Where answers go wrong

Write your answer first, then open

A strong answer

Up to the end of the ramp, cumulative cost per visit is 6 × c × R ÷ (V × (T + 1)(T + 2)). With c = $600, R = 18 and V = 150 that is 432 ÷ ((T + 1)(T + 2)), under $2 once (T + 1)(T + 2) exceeds 216. Month 13 gives 432 ÷ 210 = $2.06 and month 14 gives 432 ÷ 240 = $1.80, so the program beats paid in month 14, after 14 × 6 × $600 = $50,400 of spend, and reaches about $1.14 by month 18.

For the sensitivity, the month-18 figure is 64,800 ÷ (380 × V), which equals $2 at V ≈ 85. Mature traffic can come in 43% below the estimate and the program still makes the deadline. The other factors have similar room: a post could cost about $1,050, or a blog visit could book demos at about 28% of a paid click's rate rather than 50%.

The input to name is mature traffic. The cost is a quote, and the conversion ratio can be measured from the first posts' visitors, but V is a keyword-tool volume multiplied by a ranking nobody controls, and answer engines now take clicks from exactly these informational searches.

Fund it, with a check that reads V early. On plan, the first batch reaches 6 ÷ 18 × 150 = 50 visits a post in month 6; at the break-even it would be at 85 × 6 ÷ 18 ≈ 28. Stop if the first batch is under 28 visits a post in month 6, after $21,600 rather than $64,800.

Rubric

Applies the cumulative cost per visit and finds month 14, with the $2 price built from the conversion ratio
Rejects the month-only ratio, which claims month 9
Solves for the break-even mature traffic at month 18, about 85 visits, and states the margin of safety
Names mature traffic as the input the decision is most sensitive to, with a reason
Decides with a dated, numeric stop rule that is read before most of the money is spent

Where answers go wrong

"In month 9 the program spends $3,600 and gets 2,250 visits, $1.60 each, so it beats paid in month 9." That divides one month's cost by visits that every earlier month paid for. The cumulative figure in month 9 is $3.93, the method content and SEO derives.

"Cumulative cost per visit is $3.93 in month 9, under the $4 click, so it beats paid in month 9." It compares a blog visit with a paid click as if they converted alike. At half the booking rate, a blog visit is worth $2, and that is five months later.

"It beats paid in month 14; fund it." The number is right and the decision is incomplete. The 150 visits is the least reliable input, and without a month-6 reading the founder learns it was wrong after $50,000, not $21,600.